A Short Take: On How the 2024 Election Will End

Two predictions you can take to the bank.

Every presidential campaign is different in its own way. But we haven’t seen anything like this campaign before. Nothing has even come close.

First there’s the historically disastrous debate performance by president Biden in late June. Then, about two weeks later, we witness the near-assassination of Donald Trump. About a week after that Joe Biden drops out of the race. And then, without running on her own in a single primary, Vice President Harris — who even Democrats saw as a liability — suddenly becomes her party’s candidate for president and is running neck-and-neck with Mr. Trump — and in some polls, she’s beating him.

And it’s only August. So nobody knows what surprises will pop up between now and November 5.

As some of you know, after predicting that Donald Trump wouldn’t run in 2016, I stashed my crystal ball in the attic where it’s been gathering dust ever since.

If you want to look stupid, go ahead and make predictions. Pretend you know what you’re talking about. Yogi was right: making predictions is hard, especially when they’re about the future.

But in spite of Mr. Berra’s words of wisdom, I’m about to share two political predictions with you — with absolutely no fear of looking like a jerk when the campaign is over. Am I overconfident? Too sure of myself? Arrogant? Maybe, but I don’t think so.

So here it goes …

Prediction #1: If Kamala Harris loses, be prepared to hear her supporters attribute the loss to racism and sexism — not to her positions on issues voters care about.

That’s not to say that there aren’t racists out there. But can we at least acknowledge that even a woman of color is capable of losing for reasons other than race and gender? Her policies matter — and how she expresses them matter too.

But it will be easier for people on the left to blame racism and sexism for a defeat, should one come about, then to blame Kamala Harris herself.

Take prediction #1 to the bank. It will come to pass.

Prediction #2: If Donald Trump loses, as sure as the sun rises in the East, he will say that the only reason he lost was because the election was rigged — again.

Donald Trump is too much in love with himself to believe — or at least acknowledge— that voters might reject him because they don’t like him, because they find him crude and nasty and childish, because elections are about the future and Donald is stuck in the past.

Donald Trump is incapable of change — even a near-death experience couldn’t transform him, from what he’s been all his life, into something better. So you can take prediction #2 to the bank also.

Okay, call me Captain Obvious if that makes you feel better, but when there’s a lot at stake — like the future of our country — it’s important to state the obvious.

I have no idea who’s going to win this election (though I have my suspicions). I have no idea what surprises are in store for us between now and Election Day (and neither does anyone else).

But I have retrieved my crystal ball from the attic. I have dusted it off. And I got a clear view of the future. Too bad it looks depressingly a lot like the past.