I hate to say it, but from where I'm sitting, the most likely scenario for 2024 is that Joe Biden is reelected. Here's my reasoning:
1. The Democrats have no bench. Joe is their guy. My theory when he first got elected was that they (i.e. the Dem establishment/Joe's handlers) would use Joe to get thru the election, then have him retire after the mid-terms, and have Kamala run as an incumbent in 2024. The problem - Kamala is a disaster, even worse than a diminished Joe. So they will double down on Joe as their guy.
2. On the GOP side, IF Trump wins the GOP nomination, we will have Trump v Biden 2.0, with the same result, including Trump's claim that the election was stolen from him once again.
3. If Trump DOES NOT win the GOP nomination, he will also claim that the nomination was stolen from him by RINOs and Deep State Democrats, or whomever else he can blame rather than himself. He will most assuredly NOT support whomever the GOP nominee is. He will either run as an independent, which splits the Republican vote and assures a Dem win, OR he will encourage his voters to sit out the election, as he did in the GA runoffs, blaming the corrupt Deep State populated by Democrats and RINOs - which also assures a Dem win.
I don't see any other way this plays out, short of Trump being convicted of an actually serious crime and somehow deemed ineligible to run.
I DO think the most likely scenario is Biden winning (and I think your logic is solid)... though I'm still not as convinced as a lot of people are that he'll actually run.
Yeah, Trump is hell bent on costing the GOP the presidency again, one way or another. The best thing for the GOP would have been for the U.S. Senate to find Trump guilty (which he very much deserved) on impeachment. It would have taken him out of political play permanently, and the Republicans would have been well on their way to recovery by now (likely including a strong House majority and a majority in the Senate).
Just a historical note John; back when I was a young salesman for a multinational company in the field of mineral exploration, I signed a multimillion-dollar deal which I was extremely proud of. When we were signing the agreement, the customer winked at me and said, "remember kid, you're selling the best product in the world". Which I was.
I'm sure you worked hard selling that first book, no doubt. But you were selling a very, very, good product. Good salespeople sell good products. And your books are great products. Many of my Vince Flynn friends are reading yours since we lost Flynn at such a young age. Good job.
On the substance of your article, I couldn't agree more. But what good conservative has a chance in today's environment? My favorite, and one that has been destroyed by the Trumpster's is Mitt Romney. I am surprised at my company which has a few Trumpsters, that in their opinion Romney is a loser. Here's a guy that can reach across the aisle, make deals, actually run an Olympics that doesn't destroy an economy, recognize our real enemies, have a real border policy, etc., etc., and all they care about is they want a leader that says nasty things about other people. And they believe that will make us great again? They can't see that the policies which came through the Trump administration was from the very people Trump threw under the bus. And so if we can't get Romney to run, where are we?
I made the decision after the last election that I will never vote again. Based upon where Minnesota politics has gone and this Trumpster movement, I won't waste my time
Thank you for the kind words. I really appreciate them, and I'm glad you and your friends have enjoyed my books. My main point with that analogy is perhaps be summarized with that last sentence: "You can write the best book in the world, but if you can’t compel people to read it, it will remain a hidden gem."
If I hadn't taken the initiative to get out there and enthusiastically promote my work to people, it wouldn't have gone anywhere. And that's what's frustrating about the GOP field. It's filled with quality people who are afraid to effectively promote themselves out of deference to Donald Trump.
>>But what good conservative has a chance in today's environment?
I think many current GOP hopefuls are, at their core, genuine conservatives: Haley, Scott, Pence, etc. I suspect DeSantis probably is too, despite the statist culture-war battles he's waged in Florida out of a (perhaps correct) belief that he needs to perform such stunts to be nationally viable within the Republican party. My belief is that conservative policies and leadership are far more popular with the general electorate than today's MAGA-driven Republican party. We've seen evidence of that in Virginia, Georgia, Ohio, and elsewhere. If people like Youngkin and Kemp can win statewide races in states that chose Biden over Trump, that should send a strong signal to the Republican party. But most of the GOP would apparently rather lose with a MAGA nominee than win with a serious conservative.
>>I am surprised at my company which has a few Trumpsters, that in their opinion Romney is a loser.
Of course, the irony is that Romney lost ONE election for the GOP, while Trump has lost three now, and is working on a fourth.
>>all they care about is they want a leader that says nasty things about other people. And they believe that will make us great again? They can't see that the policies which came through the Trump administration was from the very people Trump threw under the bus.
Bingo. It's insane.
>>I made the decision after the last election that I will never vote again. Based upon where Minnesota politics has gone and this Trumpster movement, I won't waste my time
I'll still vote for sane Republicans, even though Trump effectively turned Colorado blue for the foreseeable future. :(
"Most folks would prefer that both of these guys retire from politics."
Please let happen!
I know - I am delusional🥴
I hate to say it, but from where I'm sitting, the most likely scenario for 2024 is that Joe Biden is reelected. Here's my reasoning:
1. The Democrats have no bench. Joe is their guy. My theory when he first got elected was that they (i.e. the Dem establishment/Joe's handlers) would use Joe to get thru the election, then have him retire after the mid-terms, and have Kamala run as an incumbent in 2024. The problem - Kamala is a disaster, even worse than a diminished Joe. So they will double down on Joe as their guy.
2. On the GOP side, IF Trump wins the GOP nomination, we will have Trump v Biden 2.0, with the same result, including Trump's claim that the election was stolen from him once again.
3. If Trump DOES NOT win the GOP nomination, he will also claim that the nomination was stolen from him by RINOs and Deep State Democrats, or whomever else he can blame rather than himself. He will most assuredly NOT support whomever the GOP nominee is. He will either run as an independent, which splits the Republican vote and assures a Dem win, OR he will encourage his voters to sit out the election, as he did in the GA runoffs, blaming the corrupt Deep State populated by Democrats and RINOs - which also assures a Dem win.
I don't see any other way this plays out, short of Trump being convicted of an actually serious crime and somehow deemed ineligible to run.
Do you or Bernie see it any other way?
I DO think the most likely scenario is Biden winning (and I think your logic is solid)... though I'm still not as convinced as a lot of people are that he'll actually run.
Yeah, Trump is hell bent on costing the GOP the presidency again, one way or another. The best thing for the GOP would have been for the U.S. Senate to find Trump guilty (which he very much deserved) on impeachment. It would have taken him out of political play permanently, and the Republicans would have been well on their way to recovery by now (likely including a strong House majority and a majority in the Senate).
Unfortunately, you are correct!
Just a historical note John; back when I was a young salesman for a multinational company in the field of mineral exploration, I signed a multimillion-dollar deal which I was extremely proud of. When we were signing the agreement, the customer winked at me and said, "remember kid, you're selling the best product in the world". Which I was.
I'm sure you worked hard selling that first book, no doubt. But you were selling a very, very, good product. Good salespeople sell good products. And your books are great products. Many of my Vince Flynn friends are reading yours since we lost Flynn at such a young age. Good job.
On the substance of your article, I couldn't agree more. But what good conservative has a chance in today's environment? My favorite, and one that has been destroyed by the Trumpster's is Mitt Romney. I am surprised at my company which has a few Trumpsters, that in their opinion Romney is a loser. Here's a guy that can reach across the aisle, make deals, actually run an Olympics that doesn't destroy an economy, recognize our real enemies, have a real border policy, etc., etc., and all they care about is they want a leader that says nasty things about other people. And they believe that will make us great again? They can't see that the policies which came through the Trump administration was from the very people Trump threw under the bus. And so if we can't get Romney to run, where are we?
I made the decision after the last election that I will never vote again. Based upon where Minnesota politics has gone and this Trumpster movement, I won't waste my time
Hi Tim.
Thank you for the kind words. I really appreciate them, and I'm glad you and your friends have enjoyed my books. My main point with that analogy is perhaps be summarized with that last sentence: "You can write the best book in the world, but if you can’t compel people to read it, it will remain a hidden gem."
If I hadn't taken the initiative to get out there and enthusiastically promote my work to people, it wouldn't have gone anywhere. And that's what's frustrating about the GOP field. It's filled with quality people who are afraid to effectively promote themselves out of deference to Donald Trump.
>>But what good conservative has a chance in today's environment?
I think many current GOP hopefuls are, at their core, genuine conservatives: Haley, Scott, Pence, etc. I suspect DeSantis probably is too, despite the statist culture-war battles he's waged in Florida out of a (perhaps correct) belief that he needs to perform such stunts to be nationally viable within the Republican party. My belief is that conservative policies and leadership are far more popular with the general electorate than today's MAGA-driven Republican party. We've seen evidence of that in Virginia, Georgia, Ohio, and elsewhere. If people like Youngkin and Kemp can win statewide races in states that chose Biden over Trump, that should send a strong signal to the Republican party. But most of the GOP would apparently rather lose with a MAGA nominee than win with a serious conservative.
>>I am surprised at my company which has a few Trumpsters, that in their opinion Romney is a loser.
Of course, the irony is that Romney lost ONE election for the GOP, while Trump has lost three now, and is working on a fourth.
>>all they care about is they want a leader that says nasty things about other people. And they believe that will make us great again? They can't see that the policies which came through the Trump administration was from the very people Trump threw under the bus.
Bingo. It's insane.
>>I made the decision after the last election that I will never vote again. Based upon where Minnesota politics has gone and this Trumpster movement, I won't waste my time
I'll still vote for sane Republicans, even though Trump effectively turned Colorado blue for the foreseeable future. :(